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Objective:To study the value of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive (AR) models in predicting the daily number of ambulances in prehospital emergency medical services demand in Guangzhou.Methods:Matlab simulation software was used to analyze the emergency dispatching departure records in Guangzhou from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. A time series for the number of ambulances per day was calculated. After identifying the time series prediction model, ARIMA(1,1,1), AR(4) and AR(7) models were obtained. These models were used to predict the number of ambulances per day. ARIMA(1,1,1) model divided the time series into the training set and test set. Prony method was used for parameter calculation, and the demands of number of ambulances of the next few months were forecasted. AR(4) and AR(7) models used uniformity coefficient to forecast the demands of number of ambulances on that very day.Results:ARIMA(1,1,1), AR(4) and AR(7) can effectively predict the number of ambulances per day. The prediction fitting error of ARIMA (1,1,1) decreased with the extension of prediction time. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of forecast results of daily vehicle output of emergency dispatching within two months was less than 6% and the predicted results were almost within the 95% confidence interval. The residual analysis of the model verified that the model was significantly effective.Conclusions:ARIMA model can make a long-term within two months and effective prediction fitting of the daily vehicle output of emergency dispatching, and AR model can make a short-term and effective prediction of the daily vehicle output of emergency dispatching.
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Objective@#To analyze the using of pre-hospital emergency resources and treatment characteristics of acute alcoholism patients in Guangzhou.@*Methods@#The pre-hospital emergency data of the emergency department of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from January 1st in 2009 to December 31st in 2018 were obtained from the database of the Guangzhou Emergency Medical Command Center. The related data of patients with acute alcoholism were collected, including gender, age, poisoning severity, treatment results, caller type, number of empty vehicles (empty vehicle was defined as the empty vehicle return caused by the ambulance who did not receive or refused to come to the hospital after the ambulance leaved), departure time (from the ambulance to the completion time), on-site time (from the ambulance to the patient boarding time) and the distribution of pre-hospital emergency time in 24 hours on weekdays and weekends. The relationship between acute alcoholism patients and the peak of in-hospital emergency treatment was analyzed.@*Results@#A total of 2 408 acute alcoholism patients were recorded, among whom 2 109 patients (87.58%) with acute alcoholism, 126 (5.23%) with drug poisoning, 67 (2.78%) with chemical poisoning, 3 (0.13%) with pesticide poisoning, and 103 (4.28%) with other poisoning. Acute alcoholism patients were mainly male, with a total of 1 862 cases (88.29%), and the ratio between males and females was 7.54∶1. In 2 109 patients with acute alcoholism, 93.41% were in the age range of 18-59 years old. The number of mild patients was 1 717 (81.41%), 1 178 (55.86%) needed further treatment, and no patient died. For the occupation of pre-hospital emergency resources, 43.24% (912/2 109) of acute alcoholism called 120 through 110 with empty vehicles of 36.79% (776/2 109), which were significantly higher than the acute cerebrovascular disease [3.83% (362/9 461), 5.80% (549/9 461), both P < 0.01], acute trauma [24.29% (1 708/7 033), 7.96% (560/7 033), both P < 0.01], acute circulation system disease [2.44% (90/3 694), 2.87% (106/3 694), both P < 0.01], and acute respiratory system disease [0.86% (31/3 606), 1.58% (57/3 606), both P < 0.01]. Furthermore, empty vehicles were more likely to happen through 110 with empty vehicles rate of 51.75% (472/912), which was significantly higher than that through the witness [40.82% (60/147), P < 0.01] and relatives and friends [23.24% (244/1 050), P < 0.01]. The driving time and on-site time of acute alcoholism were significantly shorter than those of acute cerebrovascular disease, acute circulation system disease, and acute respiratory system disease [driving time (minutes): 26 (20, 34) vs. 34 (26, 45), 38 (29, 49), 38 (29, 50); on-site time (minutes): 6 (4, 10) vs. 10 (7, 14), 10 (7, 15), 10 (8, 15), all P < 0.01], but there was no statistical difference as compared with acute trauma [driving time (minutes): 26 (20, 34) vs. 29 (20, 42), on-site time (minutes): 6 (4, 10) vs. 7 (4, 11), both P > 0.05]. The regularity of variation in number of critically acute alcoholism patients was distinctive, which peaked in the period of 21:00-00:00 and bottomed out in the period of 09:00-13:00, which overlapped with the peak flow in the hospital emergency department (17:00-22:00).@*Conclusions@#Acute alcoholism patients occupy excessive pre-hospital emergency resources, and overlap with the hospital emergency treatment peak. It is necessary to strengthen the public propaganda and education on the rational usage of 120 emergency resources and reduce waste.
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To analyze the using of pre-hospital emergency resources and treatment characteristics of acute alcoholism patients in Guangzhou. Methods The pre-hospital emergency data of the emergency department of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from January 1st in 2009 to December 31st in 2018 were obtained from the database of the Guangzhou Emergency Medical Command Center. The related data of patients with acute alcoholism were collected, including gender, age, poisoning severity, treatment results, caller type, number of empty vehicles (empty vehicle was defined as the empty vehicle return caused by the ambulance who did not receive or refused to come to the hospital after the ambulance leaved), departure time (from the ambulance to the completion time), on-site time (from the ambulance to the patient boarding time) and the distribution of pre-hospital emergency time in 24 hours on weekdays and weekends. The relationship between acute alcoholism patients and the peak of in-hospital emergency treatment was analyzed. Results A total of 2 408 acute alcoholism patients were recorded, among whom 2 109 patients (87.58%) with acute alcoholism,126 (5.23%) with drug poisoning, 67 (2.78%) with chemical poisoning, 3 (0.13%) with pesticide poisoning, and 103 (4.28%) with other poisoning. Acute alcoholism patients were mainly male, with a total of 1 862 cases (88.29%), and the ratio between males and females was 7.54∶1. In 2 109 patients with acute alcoholism, 93.41% were in the age range of 18-59 years old. The number of mild patients was 1 717 (81.41%), 1 178 (55.86%) needed further treatment, and no patient died. For the occupation of pre-hospital emergency resources, 43.24% (912/2 109) of acute alcoholism called 120 through 110 with empty vehicles of 36.79% (776/2 109), which were significantly higher than the acute cerebrovascular disease [3.83% (362/9 461), 5.80% (549/9 461), both P < 0.01], acute trauma [24.29% (1 708/7 033), 7.96% (560/7 033), both P < 0.01], acute circulation system disease [2.44% (90/3 694), 2.87% (106/3 694), both P < 0.01], and acute respiratory system disease [0.86% (31/3 606), 1.58% (57/3 606), both P < 0.01]. Furthermore, empty vehicles were more likely to happen through 110 with empty vehicles rate of 51.75% (472/912), which was significantly higher than that through the witness [40.82% (60/147), P < 0.01] and relatives and friends [23.24% (244/1 050), P < 0.01]. The driving time and on-site time of acute alcoholism were significantly shorter than those of acute cerebrovascular disease, acute circulation system disease, and acute respiratory system disease [driving time (minutes): 26 (20, 34) vs. 34 (26, 45), 38 (29, 49), 38 (29, 50); on-site time (minutes): 6 (4, 10) vs. 10 (7, 14), 10 (7, 15), 10 (8, 15), all P < 0.01], but there was no statistical difference as compared with acute trauma [driving time (minutes):26 (20, 34) vs. 29 (20, 42), on-site time (minutes): 6 (4, 10) vs. 7 (4, 11), both P > 0.05]. The regularity of variation in number of critically acute alcoholism patients was distinctive, which peaked in the period of 21:00-00:00 and bottomed out in the period of 09:00-13:00, which overlapped with the peak flow in the hospital emergency department (17:00-22:00). Conclusions Acute alcoholism patients occupy excessive pre-hospital emergency resources, and overlap with the hospital emergency treatment peak. It is necessary to strengthen the public propaganda and education on the rational usage of 120 emergency resources and reduce waste.
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ObjectiveTo investigate the type,characteristics and development trend of prehospital medical care of sudden mass incident from 2001 to 2010 in Guangzhou.MethodsThe data of prehospital medical care of sudden mass incident in Guangzhou from 2001 to 2010 were come from the database of 120 Emergency Center.ResultsTotal 6 807 events of Sudden mass incident were recorded from 2001 to 2010,resulting in 26 749 injuries and 917 deaths.In all kinds of sudden mass incident,traffic accident was primary cause ( the number of cases,injuries and deaths accounted for 49.80％,55.29％ and 61.72％,respectively),followed by fighting,fire and poisoning.Over the past decade,the number of occurrence of traffic accidents and the number of injuries were increasing.The large sudden mass incident was 76.65％ in all levels of sudden mass incident happened from 2008 to 2010.Conclusions Traffic accident is an important cause of sudden mass incident in Guangzhou from 2001 to 2010.The number of the traffic accident cases and injuries were increasing.The large sudden mass incident was the main type in all levels of sudden mass incident.It is important to improve the emergency plan,strengthen the training of medical staff and organize the medical rescue drill of sudden mass incident regularly.